【英文版】2022英国石油公司能源展望-数查报告

【英文版】2022英国石油公司能源展望
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bp Energy Outlook

2022 edition

3 | bp Energy Outlook: 2022 edition

2 |

Energy Outlook

2022 explores the

key uncertainties

surrounding the

energy transition

Energy Outlook 2022 is focussed on three main scenarios:

Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum. These scenarios are not

predictions of what is likely to happen or what bp would like to happen.

Rather they explore the possible implications of dierent judgements

and assumptions concerning the nature of the energy transition.

The scenarios are based on existing and developing technologies

and do not consider the possibility of entirely new or unknown

technologies emerging.

The many uncertainties mean that the probability of any one of these

scenarios materializing exactly as described is negligible.

Moreover, the three scenarios do not provide a comprehensive

description of all possible outcomes. However, they do span a wide

range of possible outcomes and so might help to inform a judgement

about the uncertainty surrounding energy markets out to 2050.

The Outlook was largely prepared before the military action by

Russia in Ukraine and does not include any analysis of the possible

implications of those developments on economic growth or global

energy markets.

The Energy Outlook is produced to inform bp’s strategy and is

published as a contribution to the wider debate about the factors

shaping the energy transition. But the Outlook is only one source

among many when considering the future of global energy markets

and bp considers a wide range of other external scenarios, analysis

and information when forming its long-term strategy.

The content published in this initial version of the Outlook summarizes

some of the key highlights and ndings from the updated scenarios.

More detailed material is planned to be released in the future and will

be available at bp.com

5 | bp Energy Outlook: 2022 edition

4 |

At the time of writing, the world’s

attention is focussed on the

terrible events taking place in

Ukraine. Our thoughts and hopes

are with all those aected.

The scenarios included in

Energy Outlook 2022 were

largely prepared before the

outbreak of the military action

and do not include any analysis

of its possible implications

for economic growth and

global energy markets. Those

implications could have lasting

impacts on global economic and

energy systems and the energy

transition. We will update the

scenarios as the possible impacts

become clearer.

In the meantime, this year’s

Outlook describes three main

scenarios – Accelerated, Net

Zero and New Momentum –

which explore a wide span of

possible outcomes as the world

transitions to a lower carbon

energy system. Understanding

this range of uncertainty helps to

shape bp’s strategy, increasing its

resilience to the dierent speeds

and ways in which the energy

system may transition over the

next 30 years.

Developments since the previous

Outlook was published in 2020

show some signs of progress.

Government ambitions globally

to tackle climate change have

increased markedly. And key

elements of the low-carbon

energy system critical for the

world to transition successfully

to Net Zero – installation of new

wind and solar power capacity;

sales of electric vehicles;

announcements of blue and

green hydrogen and CCUS

projects – have all expanded

rapidly. There are signs of a New

Momentum in tackling climate

change.

Despite that, other than the

COVID-19-induced dip in 2020,

carbon emissions have risen in

every year since 2015, the year of

the Paris COP. The carbon budget

is nite, and it is running out:

further delays in reducing CO2

emissions could greatly increase

the economic and social costs

associated with trying to remain

within the carbon budget.

Although there is considerable

uncertainty, some features of the

energy transition are common

across all the main scenarios in

this year’s Outlook and so may

provide a guide as to how the

energy system may change over

the next few decades:

Wind and solar power expand

rapidly, supported by an

increasing electrication of the

world

A range of energy sources

and technologies is required to

support deep decarbonization

of the global energy system,

including electric vehicles, blue

and green hydrogen, bioenergy,

and CCUS

Oil and natural gas continue to

play a critical role for decades,

but in lower volumes as society

reduces its reliance on fossil fuels

The energy mix becomes more

diverse, with increasing customer

choice and growing demands for

integration across dierent fuels

and energy services.

The importance of the world

making a decisive shift towards

a net-zero future has never

been clearer. The opportunities

and risks associated with that

transition are signicant. I hope

this year’s Energy Outlook is

useful to everyone trying to

navigate this uncertain future

and accelerate the transition to

Net Zero.

As always, any feedback on the

Outlook and how we can improve

would be most welcome.

Spencer Dale

Chief economist

Welcome to the

2022 edition of

bp’s Energy Outlook

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bpEnergyOutlook2022edition3|bpEnergyOutlook:2022edition2|EnergyOutlook2022exploresthekeyuncertaintiessurroundingtheenergytransitionEnergyOutlook2022isfocussedonthreemainscenarios:Accelerated,NetZeroandNewMomentum.Thesescenariosarenotpredictionsofwhatis

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